応用科学研究の進歩 オープンアクセス

抽象的な

Weibull distribution-based model for prediction of wind potential in Enugu, Nigeria

F. C. Odo, S. U. Offiah and P. E. Ugwuoke

Modeling and prediction of wind characteristics are essential design inputs in the development of wind power systems for different locations. In this paper, the daily wind data for Enugu (6.30N; 7.30E; 450m), Nigeria, over a period of 13 years (1995 – 2007), is modeled in terms of the Weibull distribution function, in order to predict wind energy potential of the location. The daily, monthly, and annual wind speed probability density distributions at 10m meteorological height are modeled and the mean wind speed, skew, shape- and scale factors are determined with values of 2.5 ± 0.3m/s, -0.46, 2.21 and 4.31m/s respectively. The results suggest that while the wind speed is more concentrated at higher values above the mean, the distribution for Enugu departs significantly from the standard Raleigh distribution, with error of 10.5%. The coefficient of determination of the model is 0.74. Further statistics suggest that the model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, for prediction of wind energy output needed for preliminary design assessment of wind machines for the location.